Last year, there were 3 players elected, along with 3 guys from the Veteran’s Committee. I wish Craig Biggio would have gotten in last year – just to free up the ballot a bit more. 3 guys got in, but there are 2 new first year locks (Pedro and the Big Unit), as well as John Smoltz, who will make it in early in his tenure.
This year’s ballot is loaded and the Hall hasn’t made it any easier by shortening the number of years from 15 to 10. It kind of doesn’t make sense the way they did it. Since Lee Smith is in his 12th year – he’s allowed to stay for 3 more years. However, Tim Raines is in his 8th year and will only be on for 2 more years. Despite retiring 4 years after Smith, Raines will be off the ballot a year earlier. Raines is potentially the biggest casualty of the steroid backlog and the Hall’s general disorganization on setting consistent standards.
I was glad one of my favorite players, Barry Larkin, got in the year before the biggest influx of players from the steroid era shows up. That dreaded year was two years ago. But the effect will keep coming through.
The 10-player per-ballot limit is a huge problem. It splits the vote. The effect created is similar to Ross Perot running for president or when A-Rod and Griffey are on the same team and Juan Gonzalez sneaks away with the MVP. As you can see below, there are 19 players I’d vote for (21 if you count Palmeiro and Lofton who should still be eligible). With that many viable candidates, players get less vote than they otherwise would. Kenny Lofton in my mind is a Hall of Fame player – he’s at least worthy of consideration. However, he fell below 5% last year and never even got consideration.
Below is my “if I had a vote” deal. I do need to say what I’d do about the steroid guys. My opinion on the steroid thing – I’d generally vote for guys with a clear link to PEDs (Piazza and Bagwell do not have any link – just speculation with little to no basis). My reasons? First, I think PEDs were a baseball issue, not a Mark McGwire or a Barry Bonds issue. Second, this is a gray area, not the black and white line that many folks make it out to be. I think at sometime in the future, maybe 25 years or 40 years, we’re going to realize that some of those substances are safe to use and that it was silly that it got the debate it did. Finally, there is probably a PED user already in the Hall of Fame, and there are guys who have openly admitted to using amphetamines.
Steroids was part of the game just like other forms of gamesmanship have been part of the game in different eras. I say vote the cheaters in, as opposed to acting like the Hall of Fame is something more than it is – a shrine for the greatest players, managers and executives of the game, next to a museum that keeps the history of baseball.
That said, if someone is linked to PEDs, at least for the time being, I will vote them in – but behind clean guys who I think deserve to be in without any question. The only reason for this is the ballot limit of 10. I’d vote for McGwire absent any constraints, but if you have to pick between him and Craig Biggio, I’d choose Biggio. Biggio deserves to be in CLEARLY, so I slot him ahead of the other guys. This matters when you’re limited to 10 votes, because I would vote more than 10 on this ballot in.
So here’s my fake ballot. This is in the order of how I’d vote them in, meaning I’d put Randy Johnson in if I was only allowed to pick 1 player.
- Randy Johnson (1st year)
- Pedro Martinez (1st year)
- Mike Piazza (62.2%)
- Craig Biggio (74.8%)
- Tim Raines (46.1%)
- Jeff Bagwell (54.3%)
- Curt Schilling (29.2%)
- John Smoltz (1st)
- Alan Trammell (20.8%)
- Barry Bonds (34.7%)
That’s the limit of 10. I would also vote the next 8 guys in, but they’d get eliminated by the 10 player rule. It’s interesting how it worked out – I had to choose between Bonds and Clemens. That’s because to me, there are 9 “no-doubters” outside of the steroid guys. I view Trammell as a clear-cut HOF-er, but he’s definitely the least clear-cut out of those guys. Someone like Edgar Martinez, or Larry Walker – I think they should be in, but they are not as clear-cut as some of the others.
- Roger Clemens (35.4%)
- Mike Mussina (1st)
- Jeff Kent (15.2%)
- Larry Walker (10.2%)
- Edgar Martinez (25.2%)
- Sammy Sosa (7.2%)
- Mark McGwire (11.0%)
- Gary Sheffield (1st)
- Fred McGriff (11.7%)
For what it’s worth – I’d also put Rafael Palmeiro and Kenny Lofton in. Both have fallen off the ballot.
For what it’s worth – here’s what I think will happen. I think 4 guys will get in. Johnson, Pedro, and Biggio. With Piazza and Smoltz close, but probably just short.
UPDATED – based on the assembling of public ballots over at baseball think factory – Smoltz is getting a lot of love and looks like a lock. Piazza will be really close!
Lifetime Topps project 
You were close in predicting the actual results. I was like you I thought that Smoltz would have been close his first year but would not get in because his win numbers were affected by the years he pitched in relief. Piazza I thought would get just enough votes to get in.
The guy I’m disappointed who doesn’t get more votes is Fred McGriff. Solid first baseman who predates the steroid era, led both leagues in HR’s, All Star, was part of the Braves teams during the 90’s, just missed the 500 HR and 2,500 hits marks. His drawback is that his HR numbers get compared to the steroid era and that he was fairly low key. I’m also hoping that the voters vote in Raines before his eligibility is up though that’s looking unlikely with only 2 years left.
Thanks for the comment Jeff – Yeah, I agree on McGriff. I think he should get in. Sometimes I think you should ask other players – McGriff was a feared hitter for a really long time. He was a catalyst for the Braves when traded there. Never one of the best 2 or 3 in baseball – but to me still a HOF-er. He also gets hurt by when he played because his best years were really just before the offensive outbreak. He would lead the league or be close with 33-36 homers from 88-94. That’s really like hitting 40+ homers if he played 5 years later. Yet people think of him as if he started when Thomas, Griffey, etc., played, and tend to discount his numbers more than they should.
Dick Allen almost got in on the veteran’s committee – I think Crime Dog was a better player than him. Maybe not as good at Allen’s peak – but good for a longer amount of time. I think McGriff will get elected someday – just not until the veteran’s committee has it’s turn.