6 years, 1,500 posts, and a lot of baseball cards

8 03 2016

Today is my 1,500th post.  I used to do something different every time I had a post divisible by 100.  Kind of like Topps in the 1980’s, I wanted to put Pete Rose or Mike Schmidt on anything that ended in “00”.   Doing posts like this was a fun way to circle back on how long I’ve been doing this blog.  Sometimes I would tie it to historical statistics.  Other times I could look back and see how long it took me to do all my posts.

Once I did my 1,000th post, I figure I’m enough of a veteran at this game that I should celebrate less frequently.  Plus, as a 6-year blogging veteran, I can’t handle a celebration hangover like I used to :).  So post #1100, #1200, #1300, and #1400 came by with no fanfare.  But 1,500 seems like a bit of a milestone.

So I’ll look back at how long it took me to do these posts.

It took me 808 days to get from 1,000 to 1,500.  That’s a rate of 1.6 days per post.  For the first 1,000 posts, I was a little faster, going at a rate of 1.4.  I took something of a hiatus in 2014, and came back posting less frequently than I had been.  I’ve been ticking that up of late, however.

I’ll also do something statistical.

One thousand five hundred is half the way to three thousand.  And back in 2011 when Derek Jeter got his 3,000th hit, I did a series of posts around that milestone.  One for Jeter.  One for guys who’d already made it into the club.  And another for my expert predictions on who would make it in the future.  I gave Alex Rodriguez a 99% chance.  I got that one right, though it did kind of look to be in jeopardy after his 2014 suspension. Here’s the updated info for Alex, after he became the 29th player to join the club.

2012 Gypsy ARod

#29 – Alex Rodriguez – June 19, 2015.  Home run off Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers.  Yankee Stadium, New York, NY.  (3,070 hits and counting)

Here’s the rest of my predictions:

  • Ichiro – 85%

I think I was pretty good there.  Ichiro is now in the “lock” category – so if I did it today I’d go 95% or even higher.  Since he signed with the Marlins, the only thing keeping him from it will be injury or if he is unexpectedly ineffective.  I don’t see the latter happening given the nature of how he plays.

  • Albert Pujols – 80%

I think I got that correct as well.  Pujols has 2,666 hits so far, and he has a contract that runs another 6 years.  Yes, he’s hurt more now, but he’s still averaged 150 hits a season in Anaheim.  60 hits a year would get him there over the life of his contract.  I’d actually move him up a tick to 85% today.

  • Johnny Damon – 70%

I blew this one.  At the time, Damon was having a pretty good season for Tampa Bay.  His 2nd half of 2011 wasn’t as good as his first half, and his ability had eroded by the next year when he signed with Cleveland.  He finished with 2,769 hits, and I think he deserves more HOF consideration than he’s going to get.

  • Vlad Guerrero – 45%

I probably overestimated Guerrero’s chances, but I was very surprised nobody signed him after he had a decent 2011 with Baltimore.  He finished with 2,590 hits.

  • Bobby Abreu – 35%

I overrated this as well – it’s just tough to predict how much these guys are going to drop off.  After an OK 2011, Abreu played 8 games in 2012 with the Angels, was released and signed with the Dodgers.  He didn’t play in 2013, then came back to get 33 hits with the Mets in 2014 to finish with 2,470 for his career.

  • Ivan Rodriguez – 25% chance

Pudge went on the DL right after I did that post, so I’d have rated him lower at that point if I knew that.  At that point he had 2,842 hits.  He finished with only 2 more.

  • Omar Vizquel – 15% chance

I was about right with this.  Vizquel just couldn’t quite get across the finish line.  He ended up with 2,877 hits, more than anyone else on the list (not counting A-Rod).

So that’s my 3,000 hit post.  Adrian Beltre has since moved up the list.  Unlike Guerrero and Abreu, he has really poured it on after his year 32 season.  He now sits at 2,767 hits.  Considering he had 163 last year and led the league with 199 only 3 years ago – he has a pretty good chance.  Miguel Cabrera (2,331, age 32) is looking like he has a good chance, and Robinson Cano just passed 2,000 hits in his age 32 season.

Back to the milestone post thing.  Today happens to be my birthday, and this post is just 6 days past my 6th anniversary on this blog.  So that’s all pretty cool.  I had my first post on this blog back on March 2, 2010.  I was living in Columbus at that time.  Since then I moved to New Jersey, moved to Wrigleyville in Chicago, moved to another neighborhood in Chicago, and then moved to the suburbs.  My wife and I now have 2 kids.  So a lot has changed, and I’m frankly a bit surprised I’m still blogging about 2½ x 3½ cards!

So thanks for reading!  I’ve only got 4 more years and another 1,500 posts or so to make the decade and 3,000 clubs!

**********

P.S.  Now that I’m at the end of the post, I realized that the only picture was of Alex Rodriguez.  I don’t hate the guy or anything, but it seems like I need something more fun than that.

2004 Topps Griffey

There. Griffey robbing a home run. Blown up the size of my blog.  Much better.

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8 responses

8 03 2016
Gary

Congrats! Appreciate your dedication and love of cards!

8 03 2016
chuckneo

Thanks!

8 03 2016
matthewturnage

Congrats, and happy birthday!

In my opinion, 85% is still about right for Ichiro. I think he’l get there, but unless the Marlins have injuries in the outfield like they did last year, he might not get the playing time to get 65 hits this season. He got 91 hits in 438 PA last year, so a similar rate would require 313 PA this year to hit 3000. If he’s solely a backup/pinch hitter, that might not happen. Still, he’ll probably get close enough that someone will take a chance on him next year, even at 43, in order to drum up some publicity. So, I don’t think he’s quite a sure thing, but barring career-ending injury, I still expect it to happen. Maybe not in 2016, though.

9 03 2016
chuckneo

Thanks, Matt. I think he’ll get a little less playing time than last year, but still get into a pretty decent number of games. I’d bet on early September. Will certainly make Marlins a more interesting franchise than they have been of late!

8 03 2016
P-town Tom

Congrats on the milestone!

9 03 2016
chuckneo

Thanks!

8 03 2016
thechopkeeper

Congrats and happy birthday! I always look forward to your posts.

9 03 2016
chuckneo

Thanks!

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